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How are wildfires measured?
Humans have been counting for a long time.
There is strong archeological evidence to support the hypothesis that we’ve been doing it for at least 50,000 years. Over time, mathematics has come to be known as a universal language. Globally, we may have different ways of representing numbers, but we have the same base understanding in mathematics.
Measuring a wildfire is by nature difficult. Depending on the type of fuel available to it, environmental and weather conditions, a wildfire may be considered either a healthy by-product of the natural cycle of life on Earth or a dangerous natural catastrophe endangering thousands of lives.
Regardless of viewpoint , disasters are generally classified by scales of intensity and severity. Tornados, for example, are typically measured on an “f scale” (f0-f5), a scale measuring wind speed and damage done to structures. For earthquakes, we typically use the Richter scale, a quantitative measurement of the size of the waves it generates. (Incidentally, have you seen our Ready, set, earthquake! video?)
Wildfires have their own measurements. They are classified in terms of fire intensity (how hot it gets), and burn severity (how much damage it does to its environment).
Fireline intensity is “the rate of energy or heat release per unit time per unit length of fire front(kW/m). Numerically, it is equal to the product of the fuel low heat of combustion (kJ/kg), quantity of fuel consumed in the flaming front (kg/m2),and the linear rate of fire spread (m/s).”
Got that? If so, here’s more about the difficulties of measuring and calculating fireline intensity and Byram’s fire intensity equation.
If not, then, in other words, how hot is the fire, how much fuel is it burning, and how fast is it spreading?
Burn severity is much easier to understand. Wildfires are classified into 3 buckets depending on how damaging the wildfire is to the soil and vegetation in the area. The higher the severity, the more damage done to the local environment, and the longer the environment will take to grow back.
- Low Severity: A fire that predominantly damages the understory of the environment, < 25% of trees or vegetation is damaged, and soil damage is minimal
- Moderate Severity: A fire that damages between 25% and 75% of vegetation, moderate levels of soil and mineral damage
- High Severity: A fire that damages > 75% of vegetation, extending into the canopy level. Soil and mineral levels suffer heavy damage
The simplest measure to understand the impact of a wildfire might just be its size, typically measured in square acres, miles or kilometers. These days, satellite imagery, cameras from planes, and even drone coverage (but don’t do this yourself…) can help us understand the impact, size and danger a wildfire may have, more accurately and in real time.
Wildfires also have a simple size classification system depending on the area burned.
Unfortunately, these days, the number of homes burned, number of lives lost, and estimated cost of damage done are all too familiar statistics for burn severity. In 2018, the Camp Fire fire killed 85 people, the deadliest fire in the last century.
No matter how they are measured, wildfires are dangerous. But you can help to prevent them, and you can prepare for them.
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The 5 phases of disaster management
Disaster management, one aspect of emergency management, provides a framework for understanding disasters and how we handle them.
There is some debate about the specifics, but the model we have found most useful defines 5 steps:
- Prevention – We can take actions to prevent a disaster from happening in the first place.
For example,in the United States, 90% of wildfires are caused by humans, and these fires are by and far the major threat to human habitation. . Between 1980 and 2007, in Idaho, more than half of such human-caused wildfires were started by campfires, smoking, or burning debris! - Mitigation – We can take actions to reduce the impact should disaster happen.
For example, we can harden our houses and clear combustibles from around them so that burning embers from wildfires are less likely to set them on fire. - Preparedness – We can be ready to take action should disaster happen.
For example, before a wildfire even starts, we can have evacuation plans and pre-packed bags or packing lists ready. Most communities provide localized preparation guides such as this evacuation guide from Fire Safe Marin. - Response – We can take actions to do what needs to be done to protect lives and well-being when a disaster actually happens.
For example, when a wildfire is burning and threatening the area , we can evacuate as quickly as possible to ensure our safety and get out of the way of firefighting efforts. - Recovery – We can take actions to rebuild stability and normalcy when a disaster has happened.
For example, after the fire has passed and evacuation orders have been lifted, we return to our homes to see what damage we and our neighbors have suffered. Then, we can think about rebuilding, and consider what we can do to prevent, mitigate and prepare for the next one.
Community programs: Firewise and CERT
Photo by Rohini Tomar
If you want to go beyond protecting your house from wildfire, and help your community to prepare, there’s some good news.
Community organizing takes commitment and hard work. But it can be a lot of fun, and, in the case of wildfire preparedness, there’s help to be had. There may even be programs already in your community you can tap into. Two of these are Firewise and CERT.
Firewise USA
The Firewise USAⓇ program from the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) helps a group of neighbors get organized and take action to protect their homes, reduce local wildfire risk, and prepare for wildfire together. The program provides a structured process and materials for the community to work through.
Participation in the program is free. Once Firewise® certified, community residents may even get a discount on their insurance!
Get your community on the path to join the 1,976 communities currently Firewise® certified! If you’re in California, check with your local Fire Safe Council, if there is one.
CERT
The Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) program is a federal program, promoted by FEMA, and sponsored locally, usually by a fire department or office of emergency services. CERT provides standardized training to prepare individuals to supplement local response efforts in a disaster. Training covers basic disaster response skills, such as fire safety, light search and rescue, team organization, and disaster medical operations. Additionally, some CERT groups also conduct community preparedness training and projects.
Training is free. Volunteers even get a nifty hard hat, vest and backpack with supplies!
Check with your local emergency services agency to see if there’s a CERT program that can help you to get your community wildfire ready!
If you know of other programs that systematically help communities to prepare to help themselves, we would love to hear about them.
Hey, wait, what about Creative Crisis Leadership?
Thank you for asking!
We strive to prepare communities to be unprepared. Disaster rarely happens as expected. Even the best preparations miss the mark. Even the well-prepared are caught unprepared.
Our goal is to supplement community-based preparedness programs with fun and engaging immersive community learning experiences. We develop and test these learning experiences to inspire people to prepare, and foster the mindsets and skills they need to improvise when they find themselves unprepared.
To ensure that our learning experiences are relevant and meet community needs, we work with community partners, such as Firewise and CERT, throughout our process.
Please get in touch if you know of an organization or community that would like to help us to develop and test a Wildfire Learning Experience in 2022.
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Who causes more wildfires? Humans vs Nature!
“Poster from U.S Forest Service, The National Symbols Cache”
Have you ever heard the catchphrase, “Remember… Only YOU Can Prevent Forest Fires”? If so, then you’re familiar with one of the longest running public service campaigns in the United States, promoting wildfire safety.
Did you know that wasn’t Smokey’s original catchphrase though? It’s also not our favorite bear’s most recent message!
20 years ago, in response to a significant outbreak of wildfires in areas other than forests, Smokey’s catchphrase was changed to: “Only You Can Prevent Wildfires,” reminding all that wildfires occur not just in forests, but everywhere.
77 years ago, Smokey had this warning for us,
“Smokey Says – Care Will Prevent 9 out of 10 Forest Fires.”
Not as catchy, but quite alarming. Were humans really to blame for 90% of forest fires? Is that still true today?
Let’s see how our contenders face off!
Humans vs Nature!
ROUND 1
Since 2001, the National Interagency Fire Center has been compiling annual wildland fire statistics for both federal and state agencies. The data speaks for itself:
Even as recently as last year, humans were the root cause of over 90% of wildfires in the United States. That trend appears to be increasing (up 7% over 20 years). So,
Humans 1, Lighting 0
Humans vs Nature!
ROUND 2
In terms of total impact, though, who poses the bigger threat?
By acres burned on a yearly basis, this bout goes to lightning. Fires sparked by lighting burn more area on average than wildfires started by humans. This is due to most human caused fires starting in the Wildland Urban Interface (WBI), a zone of land defined as “area or zone where structures and other human development meet or intermingle with undeveloped wildland or vegetative fuels”.
Wildfires that start here cause a bigger threat, but are more easily reached by firefighters.
Looking at the cumulative growth of acres burned over time, we can see that fires started by lightning have burned a greater area than fires caused by humans:
So,
Humans 1, Lightning 1
Humans vs Nature!
ROUND 3
So if humans cause roughly 9 out of 10 wildfires, but more acres have burned due to lightning, who is the real winner of the match?
A study published in 2020 analyzed over 1.6 million wildfires between the years 1992 and 2015, and found that “Human-caused wildfires accounted for 97% of the residential homes threatened (within 1 km of a wildfire) and nearly a third of suppression costs.”
In 2020, researchers at the University of California Irvine found that “large human-caused fires have a significantly larger impact on the ecosystems when compared to lightning-caused fires.” They concluded that the faster the fire spread, the more damage was done to the local ecosystem, and fires started by humans generally grow faster.
So,
Humans 2, Lightning 1
Unfortunately, humans win.
Personally, I think it’s time to bring back a slightly modified version of Smokey’s original catchphrase,
“Smokey Says – We CAN Prevent 9 out of 10 Wildfires”
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Do not hesitate, evacuate early!
DarrenRD, CC BY-SA 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/ File:Landscape_view_of_wildfire_near_Highway_63_in_south_Fort_McMurray.jpg)
“With the fires, my job was to leave.”
So says Barbara, who had to evacuate in the face of the Santa Cruz fires. Outside of the very real trauma of potentially losing her home, she found that evacuation was “smooth and easy.” No traffic. No rushing. And no anxiety of getting caught by the fire. Why? Because she didn’t wait for an evacuation order. She evacuated early.
Why should you evacuate early?
According to the Fire Safe Marin Evacuation Guide:
“Leave immediately if you receive a notification or alert to avoid being caught in fire, smoke, or road congestion. Don’t wait to be ordered by authorities to leave if you are unsure, feel threatened, or lose power or communications. Law enforcement will direct the evacuation and they will keep intersections open and moving, but their resources may be limited. Evacuating early (before evacuation is ordered) helps keep roads clear of congestion, and lets fire apparatus move more freely to do their job. If you are advised to leave, do not hesitate!”
The dangers of road congestion can not be over-stressed. RebuildSoCal.org, citing a 2020 University of California (UC) report on wildfire evacuations, states that “most evacuees experienced significant congestion along their evacuation routes.” In the case of the Camp Fire that destroyed Paradise CA,
“that event illuminated the grim reality that many road systems throughout the state are not designed to handle a sudden emergency evacuation. … and Paradise is not unique in that regard. A USA Today analysis of populations, fire risk zones and roadways showed that one out of every 100 ZIP codes in California has a population-to-evacuation-route ratio that is near to or worse than that of Paradise.”
So, just leave.
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